≥2000 engaged users on Manifold in 2024?

Plus

Ṁ84k

Jan 1

chance

ALL

Any single day has at least 2000 Engaged users, e.g. as Jan 31 has 1582 in the below screenshot.

Resolves according to manifold.markets/stats, or official Manifold data that replaces it.

I might bet in this market, as resolution is unambiguous.

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1,000

and

3.00

10 Comments

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Rough, I was really expecting a peak around election season...

opened a Ṁ15,000 YES at 52% order

15k YES at 52%

@nsokolsky maybe interested?

Unfortunately this market is quite easy to manipulate using bots/fake accounts, don't want to risk too much mana.

hmm, fair enough.

bought Ṁ4,000 YES

woooooo

bought Ṁ50 YES

I'm thinking yes because elections are coming and will draw lot of people to betting markets

opened aṀ5,000YES at 53% order

@Bayesian long way to go on that chart. Insider info or plan to manipulate?

@deagol thought we were at 1500 ngl. No insider info. Also YES shares are more valuable than NO shares bc in the worlds where this resolves YES the shares are more likely to be worth money

We are now nearly at 1500! Epic. Also pivot stuff ig. But I’m pretty skeptical of the pivot working out

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