Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
โž•
Plus
25
แน€3648
2026
96%
OpenAI
83%
Alphabet / Google
73%
xAI
67%
Anthropic
43%
Meta
15%
Microsoft (?)
10%
Mistral
10%
Apple (?)
10%
Reka AI
8%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Chatbot Arena Leaderboard or iterations/new versions of it as creator sees fit. If the project is altogether abandoned with no equivalent, the answers that have not yet resolved YES will resolve NO at EOY unless some replacement appears.

If multiple shared #1 ranks, as has been the case in the past, any of those positions count.


If there are no longer ranked numbers, only top spot/ELO would count. If same ELO, but second spot for some trivial/irrelevant reason, still resolves YES.

Answer resolves YES immediately when an update has been confirmed, no matter what duration it stays in top.

Any AI that hasn't been #1 before during 2025, resolves to NO at the end of the year.

I will not trade in this market, resolution might get messy through mergers/acquisitions, changes to the leaderboard, etc.

Let me know if you want to see improvements to criteria.

See same market but for top 10 below:

/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-top-10-in-lmsys

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See same market but for top 10 below:

/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-top-10-in-lmsys

Microsoft (?)

@HenriThunberg Would have to be listed as Microsoft under the "Organization" column of the leaderboard. Same for Apple.

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