Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?
Basic
6
Ṁ1762026
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any sort of prison facility counts, including detention centers and psychiatric facilities.
House arrest, electronic confinement at a private home, would not.
Let me know if you want me to outline edge cases before you trade.
I might trade in this market, will probably be low-stakes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Caroline Ellison be imprisoned at all?
99% chance
Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
26% chance
Will we expect SBF to serve more than 15 years in prison?
61% chance
Will Elizabeth Holmes serve at least 4 years of her prison sentence?
82% chance
Will Elizabeth Holmes be in jail on Jan 1 2027?
64% chance
Will Elizabeth Holmes serve at least 2 years of her prison sentence?
93% chance
Will @Celene be convicted of a misdemeanor or felony by the end of 2024?
16% chance
Will SBF get a longer sentence than Caroline + Gary + Nishad?
92% chance
Will SBF serve his full 25 year sentence?
20% chance
Will Aella spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?
3% chance