Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta.
Should have some publicly listed acknowledgment of the employment, e.g. an interview, press release, or LinkedIn page.
Only consulting (at ~less than <50%) doesn't count.
Includes "doing an Ilya" and starting something that looks ripe for substantial investment, even if not major at time of formation.
I will not trade in this market.
Clarification:
> "Scenario: it's July 2025, we have no idea what Murati is up to. January 2026 we learn that she's been working on a stealth startup with GV and A16Z backing since December 2024. I think something like this is quite likely. Should I bet NO because this ends Q2 when we won't know or will this resolve later if we don't know either way?"
Such case would resolve NO, I will resolve according to known status at market close.
1,000
3.00@JoshYou I'd say no, "every company will be an AI company", and it doesn't match "lab" as described in title or examples in description. Does that feel fine?
Scenario: it's July 2025, we have no idea what Murati is up to. January 2026 we learn that she's been working on a stealth startup with GV and A16Z backing since December 2024. I think something like this is quite likely. Should I bet NO because this ends Q2 when we won't know or will this resolve later if we don't know either way?
@Enlil Thanks for engaging!
> Should have some publicly listed acknowledgment of the employment, e.g. an interview, press release, or LinkedIn page.
In theory, such fog of war period could stretch out forever, and I am pretty against re-resolving in a case like described by you. I'll clarify in description, but your case would resolve NO.