Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?

66% chance. Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered). At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.