Background
The US and Iran have had a long history of tensions, but direct military confrontations have been limited. Prior to January 2020, US military actions against Iran were primarily focused on sanctions, proxy conflicts, and strikes against Iranian-backed groups in neighboring countries. The last significant US military operation directly related to Iran was Operation Eagle Claw in 1980, which was a failed hostage rescue mission rather than an attack on Iran itself.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if the United States conducts a direct military strike against targets on Iranian territory before January 1, 2024. This includes:
Missile strikes
Airstrikes
Naval bombardment
Special operations on Iranian soil
The market will resolve NO if:
No attacks occur before January 1, 2024
US military actions are limited to Iranian proxies or assets outside of Iran's territory
Cyber attacks or other non-kinetic operations occur
Defensive actions are taken against Iranian forces outside of Iranian territory
Background
The US and Iran have had a long history of tensions, but direct military confrontations have been limited. Prior to January 2020, US military actions against Iran were primarily focused on sanctions, proxy conflicts, and strikes against Iranian-backed groups in neighboring countries. The last significant US military operation directly related to Iran was Operation Eagle Claw in 1980, which was a failed hostage rescue mission rather than an attack on Iran itself.