If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
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16
Ṁ17732100
69%
Gary Marcus will be completely unimpressed by its capabilities
68%
It will be based on deep learning
61%
At least one person directly involved in its creation will be a trillionaire
59%
More than 10 000 human hours will be spent to make sure it does not return politically incorrect outputs
59%
It will be based on neural networks
58%
It will run on Nvidia GPUs
57%
It will wipe out humanity after the rapid recursive self-improvement
56%
Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population as a prosaic thing, e.g. “it is just matrices to predict the next word”
54%
Right before the extermination event, at least 25% of human population will think that they are smarter than it.
52%
Before the extermination event, it will make significant extraordinary contributions to science, technology, and human well-being.
51%
When communicating with human words, it will use the word “delve” more often than it occurs in human texts on average
50%
It will be created by OpenAI, Anthropic or DeepMind
50%
It will be some advanced form of a multimodal transformer
50%
It will run on an AI architecture which is not known as of 2024
50%
Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population a superintelligence with the capabilities beyond their comprehension
50%
Meta will try to create an open source version of it
50%
The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 24 hours from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed
45%
Before wiping out humanity, it will attempt some trade with humanity
41%
The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 1 hour from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed
41%
Right before the extermination event, alignment will be generally considered a solved problem
If I survive the event beyond Earth, I will resolve the market according to my best judgement. As soon as there are some reliable people beyond Earth, I will share with them access to the market to resolve it according to their best judgement in the case I am wiped out. If it happens, I will provide the names of these people in the description of the market.
New options may be added later.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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