Year of Elon Musk's next visit to Russia

1kṀ1496

2099

18%

2031-2035

18%

2036-2040

18%

2027-2028

15%

2081-2100

15%

2041-2060

15%

2026

14%

2061-2080

14%

2029-2030

12%

2101-2102

11%

2025

This market resolves to the year in which Elon Musk next visits Russia. The visit must be confirmed by credible news sources or official statements from Musk or his companies.

If Musk does not visit Russia by the close date, this market will resolve to the answer that includes the close date year or later.

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I changed this market to multiple choice bc changing the answers to buckets won't work with independent multiple choice. Now it's just missing arbitrage but other than that it should work fine

bought Ṁ10 NO

Only one option can resolve yes, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye yes. I will change the names of options to better represent this

Why is the predicted date 961 even though that's clearly outside the possible range?

@AlexanderTheGreater I have no idea why. At first i wanted to create a market with single number and higher/lower bets, but couldn't find the option.

@IliaSud Ah with the 'threshold' style market you can't mix ranges and befores/afters. All the answers have to be before/after a date, not some after and some 2035-2040. It'd have to look like the following market (just a test market): https://manifold.markets/ian/year-of-elon-musks-next-visit-to-ru-59C955RA9p?play=true