
As of our 2023 light cone, is there extraterrestrial life in the galaxy?
16
1kṀ6189999
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves once we've explored the galaxy and can be pretty sure.
Panspermia counts iff it was:
From natural causes and not human spacecraft.
The life in question is replicating and growing to a successful enough extent that it doesn't seem likely to go extinct any time soon, and has spread out a significant distance from its landing point.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we discover alien life before 2029?
12% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2026?
7% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2035?
20% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2038?
22% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2039?
24% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2032?
15% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2027?
7% chance
Will we discover alien life before 2037?
20% chance
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
16% chance
Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?
21% chance