If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
Plus
10
Ṁ3532030
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
"Recover" means entirely back to normal, same technology level and standards of living as before. (The trend line can be disrupted, obviously.) Averaged across all of humanity. (e.g. one country being slightly worse and another being slightly better won't prevent this from resolving YES.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@IsaacKing So then if no such flare occurs this will obviously resolve true, rather than N/A, because that's what material implication means, right?
@ArmandodiMatteo Hmm, good question. I don't really keep up with economics data, so others would know better than me, but as far as the US goes my impression is early 2023?
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?
15% chance
Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
31% chance
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
45% chance
Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?
14% chance
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
56% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
31% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?
44% chance
Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?
39% chance
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
74% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?
24% chance