If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?
➕
Plus
23
Ṁ1579
2031
25%
chance

Uses the same definition of "competitor" as in this market.

For clarity, the specific comparison is "is the competitor as successful two years after its launch as Manifold was two years after its own launch?". I'm checking success at the two year point, not beforehand, so if the competitor quickly becomes more popular than Manifold but then loses that popularity before two years have passed, its brief moment in the sun won't count in its favor.

If multiple competitors are launched, this market is about the first one. (I'll make a separate market for the second.)

I won't bet.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

I'm not sure what the strictest definition of a competitor would be, but part of what is underlying BrierFox is open source software, and there is a market which has been put together which hopefully verifies, toward the end of the year, on a third party basis, what direction the software itself is going. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu

Should this count as the first competitor? Or should we not count things this rough?

https://brierfoxforecast.ngrok.app/

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Strictly speaking, your other market says anyone has to be able to make a market right? But right now Brierfox is invite only, so maybe that doesn't count?

@Joshua Ah you're right. Ok, doesn't qualify yet.

@IsaacKing it may never be not invite-only

predicts YES

If you launch a competitor, the market would resolve to your subjective judgement about your own company?

How does this resolve if multiple competitors are launched?

@jcb Only about the first.

S GboughtṀ100NO

@SG has entered the chat

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules