What is your best guess now?

The New Yorker article presents the arguments but make a strong case against the fraud.

I especially like this part : << One of them, Gilberte Mery, whose grandfather was Jeanne’s first cousin, told Le Journal du Dimanche that the switch theory was “completely idiotic.” Recalling the Arles tradition of promenades, she said, “We looked at who walked with whom, we noticed if someone changed her dress. Can you imagine if, all of a sudden, people no longer saw Aunt Jeanne but Yvonne?” >>

Made a market a long time ago about this, landed on the semi arbitrary 35%. https://manifold.markets/Conflux/what-probability-will-i-assign-to-j

A link to make it easy for people to go to that market:

Whoops, I accidentally reversed this market's resolution. (Original title was asking whether it was fraudulent.) The current title is the correct one.

If this affected your bets, please correct your bets and tell me how much you lost, and I'll manalink you the difference.