https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanne_Calment
Resolves to my best guess taking into account all the available evidence in 2040, unless it seems at the time like more evidence will be coming out soon, in which case I'll delay resolution.
Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Exact Match Requirement: The longevity record must match exactly 122 years and 164 days.
No Tolerance for Error: Any deviation—by even a few days or weeks—will result in a resolution of no.
1,000@IsaacKing Betting on NO then, since I don't think it's likely that any new evidence would come out in the next 15 years.
The New Yorker article presents the arguments but make a strong case against the fraud.
I especially like this part : << One of them, Gilberte Mery, whose grandfather was Jeanne’s first cousin, told Le Journal du Dimanche that the switch theory was “completely idiotic.” Recalling the Arles tradition of promenades, she said, “We looked at who walked with whom, we noticed if someone changed her dress. Can you imagine if, all of a sudden, people no longer saw Aunt Jeanne but Yvonne?” >>