Resolves once transgenderism is no longer as controversial a subject and we can be confident that research is sound and unbiased. (Probably not for another 20 years at least.)
This is about the distribution at the time of market creation, not at the time of resolution. In the event of inter-country differences, I'll resolve based on the United States only.
1,000
3.00I broadly agree with the others that this question is ambiguous and should be clarified.
A question for the market creator: what “biological” marker will you use for resolution down the road?
Chromosome (nobody is tracking / recording laypeople’s chromosomes except in rare medically necessary cases)
Sex marker as written on birth certificate (not biological, but most definitive)
Hormonal environment in utero
General outward appearance at young age
What hormones the body naturally produces
Most of these are likely to be in agreement for the vast majority of folks who aren’t trans, and therefore most of these are not being tracked at the population level as of 2024, but since you plan on resolving based on available research, there may be differences in popular thinking forty years from now.
It’s also worth clarifying what you mean by gender dysphoria. Which of the following examples would count?
A trans woman frets about which bathroom to enter
A man starts to wish he could wake up tomorrow as a woman
A man discovers the thought of himself as a woman is sexually gratifying
A woman who isn’t trans frets about putting on makeup
An ordinary man who isn’t trans has an abnormally high voice and gets misgendered over the phone, and feels weird about it (this happened to a friend, for example)
A woman who isn’t trans gets told by her boss to be more assertive during meetings. She feels bad about it.
Two very young boys are talking. One calls the other a girl by accident (he’s less clear about the whole “boys or girls” thing).. The other boy gets angry about it and bites the first.
I’d argue that all of the above are examples of dysphoria, and all of them stem from insecurity of performance of gender.
But ultimately, the resolution criteria of this market are up to you, whether you agree with us or not.
Most people with gender dysphoria are cis women who like being beautiful and haven't done their morning routine yet- put on makeup, washed face, done hair, etc. Many cis women do not pass as female without significant effort into their gender presentation, and a large subset of those want to pass ww women. Gender dysphoria and gender euphoria is something that is not rare to experience amongst women, and statistically speaking, trans women are a minority.
FYI, "biological men/biological women" is considered a rather rude and inaccurate term in trans circles, since it conflates sex and gender in a way that can come across as deeply invalidating regardless of the intention of the speaker. I would suggest either using "biological male/biological female" (I'm personally not a fan, but it is technically accurate and more clearly about sex rather than gender; like, it is unambiguously more accurate than "biological man/woman") or "AMAB/AFAB" (the preferred term, especially because of some of the things Pat brought up in his comments - plenty of intersex people never actually know they're intersex because they just get assigned male or female at birth, and the stats on AMAB/AFAB are going to be easier to get, more reliable, and cause less dysphoria for trans people scrolling through Manifold looking at market titles.)
@evergreenemily Even then, when someone gets HRT, they change their biology. So "biological man" is not even technically correct in a lot of cases
@Loop Yeah, exactly. My biochemistry has more in common with an AFAB person than an AMAB person at this point.
@jakgnfdaghfjkahg Riffing on this: my hormone levels are in the cis range for women, meaning high estrogen and low testosterone. I will require mammograms for preventative breast cancer screening when I’m older. This is a semi-permanent state, and will remain true even if I stop taking medicine.
These markers are biological. I’m partway between “biological men” and “biological women.” Would I fall under the former bucket or the latter? I genuinely don’t know.
@IsaacKing biological sex as a term implies we know someone's genes and gene expression, which we don't, rather than their gender assigned at birth
@Stralor We should have 1 million fully sequenced genomes within the next decade, which I believe would be a completely sufficient sample size even if ~0.25% of people were in each relevant group. Correlating genomes with gender identity might not be as clear, but, in 20+ years, I feel almost completely certain this will be resolvable. In 50 years, I'd expect the majority of first-worlders to have access to a record of their full sequence.
What is the dogwhistle here? I ask not to disagree that it's present, but because I have social anxiety and the alleged existence of dogwhistles means I have to worry even more about accidental miscommunications. This reads as totally innocuous to me, so it is important that I know what you think is wrong with it.
edit: I should clarify that last paragraph, as it potentially reads as insulting to both of you:
At least one of two things is true: Dogwhistles are a real way for radicals to publicly signal their beliefs to other radicals while hiding their beliefs from others, or dogwhistles are a real way for moderates and opposed radicals to justify blindly accusing moderates of holding radical beliefs when they have never expressed them publicly. I do not have strong, objective beliefs about which. Subjectively, I abhor the concept, but that comes from a place of emotion. In both cases, I believe they are unfalsifiable, thus my refusal to disagree that one is present here- it would be a waste of our time. In both cases, I need to be concerned about accidental miscommunication; the belief in their existence is sufficient for them to put out signal.
@IsaacKing to explain: people speak about “chromosomal women” and “chromosomal men” because they assume that XX always means women and XY always means men and vice versa, but the reality is that most outward appearances of sex are determined by the hormonal environment in utero, which usually (not always!) is determined by chromosomes.
In the end, nobody’s actually going to their doctor to get their karyotype checked. There are plenty of special cases, like XXY folks, androgen-insensitive XY women (with fully women anatomy) who are shocked to learn that they’re “chromosomally men,” so it’s not clear cut.