Doesn't count joke elections or sham positions with no actual power.
@AaronKreider Lol, pretty sure this would become worldwide news, unless you're positing some kind of lizardmen conspiracy (an AI pretending to be a human).
@AaronKreider People here are overly obsessed with AI. Normal people care more about dogs. When a dog wins it isn't even national news (in the US).
@AaronKreider I feel like that doesn't really count. What I had envisaged for this type of market was step 1, government makes it legal for AIs to stand for election, step 2, an AI actually gets elected.
@RobinGreen Then it is 1% odds of that. BTW - I'm mostly just arguing from the point of view of trying to improve the rules writing in markets as I'm a professional prediction market trader and there are many examples of very bad rules on Manifold markets (and there is tens of thousands of dollars won and lost each year on badly written rules on Polymarket alone).
The rules need to be specific. Unless you are just creating joke markets.
So don't use the word "any" unless you mean it and have the ability to verify all the instances of it.
Hmm maybe I should create a Bad Rules / Joke Market tag...
as I'm a professional prediction market trader
That's interesting, didn't know those existed. What sites do you trade on?
and there are many examples of very bad rules on Manifold markets
Well manifold wants to let anyone create markets, which necessitates market rules being somewhat vague. Gigacasting's markets are notoriously underspecified but still work, mostly.
@jacksonpolack I'm on PredictIt (mostly dead, but might come back), Polymarket, Insight Prediction, and have been on some others previously (Iowa Election Market, even the UBC Election Market)
@Dreamingpast Hmm, good question. If it's a position where public elections aren't run, but rather one or a small group of people simply chooses who gets the position, should that count?
@IsaacKing I think a literal interpretation of your title would include this - eg in UK local government, some mayors are 'elected' by the elected councillors, rather than by the electorate.
It is not how I initially interpreted your title though and others may have shared my initial assumption that this referred to a public electorate.
Up to you whether you prioritise common-sense interpretation or maximum extent of the literal interpretation.