Will anyone die in space before 2030?
Basic
40
2.4k
2030
29%
chance

The death must be above the Kármán line. (100km.) If it's unknown where exactly the death occurred, there must be a >=50% chance it occurred above the Kármán line.

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There's only ever been one incident where people died above the Kármán line. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents