Manifold started with the rationality and forecasting community at the beginning of 2022. Near the end of 2022, we were joined by the Destiny community. Will we get a third community by the end of 2023?
This resolves very subjectivly, based on whether I see a lot of markets and comments being made by people who are clearly neither rationalists/forecasters or Destiny.ggers. In order to count, it must be a large enough community to be comparable to the other two in terms of impact on Manifold; it can't just be one small group of 10 people joining and making markets for each other.
Incoming wave of Aella simps. The 3rd "community" will be hundreds of horny men crabbing each other desperately hoping senpai notices them. (Embed below)
@Mira This could count, but only if they're engaging with the broader site by leaving comments and making markets. Simply betting on Aella's market is not sufficient.
@ian If it catches on outside the rationalist community and they start betting on Manifold, yep.
@JosephNoonan Did your survey include any questions that could tell rationalists apart from the general AI research community?
@IsaacKing I had the question asking whether people are part of the rationalist movement, but almost everyone had at least some degree of overlap with it.
I also had a few that were about people's opinions on tech and specifically tech-based questions on Manifold.
There was a third question that was free response asking about the alignment problem, but I don't think that one could distinguish between groups.
I'm not sure exactly what you're looking for, though. Are you saying that if these two groups are distinct enough, it would count as a YES resolution with the AI research community as the third community?
@IsaacKing If anything, the most useful result from my survey for this market might be the implication that Destiny.ggers aren't as big a group on Manifold as we thought. This was the distribution of what people thought of Destiny's YouTube channel, with the purple bar being "Haven't watched".
@JosephNoonan I think you may be confusing "Manifold users" with "people who chose to take my survey".
@IsaacKing This is true. I did mention that on my blog post as one possible reason for the result. But I did get a lot of people to take it, and I feel like I don't see very much Destiny-related stuff on Manifold anymore. I'm not sure if it's because Destiny fans are less active now than they were before, or if Manifold has just done more to keep Destiny stuff separate from the rest of the site.
@IsaacKing There are some pretty big markets in the "One Piece Stocks" category: https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=one-piece-stocks&t=&q=
But none of them have as many traders as the biggest Destiny stocks, so I don't think they're as big as the other two communities.