Must be largely undisputed. The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.
@Lorxus Not necessarily: the Bougainville market's conditions on international recognition are potentially weaker (e.g. Taiwan is considered a country there but wouldn't pass here)
@MartinModrak With Bougainville recognized by both itself and Papua New Guinea, I'd be surprised if it didn't get ~widespread int'l recognition - but I suppose it could account for a gap of a few percent?
@MartinModrak Sure but then you're assuming near-zero probability of other new internationally recognized countries come into being, or becoming recognized.
@BTE just the opposite, those are on the verge of annexation.
The top candidates are us federal government collapse leading to state governments.
I don't see why? If you Google "newest country", South Sudan is consistently the result. Wikipedia says that South Sudan is "the most recent sovereign state or country with widespread recognition as of 2023". Seems pretty straightforward to me.
If people really want a more specific guideline, how about going by whether it's listed here?
@NathanpmYoung Why? I don’t see how you could argue Scotland seceding from the U.K. wouldn’t count as a ‘new’ country (assuming its internationally recognised, which is likely if it follows from a referendum).
@DavidSchwartz a simple definition could just leave it up to whether the US recognises the new country, or whether the UN gets a new member. I suppose those are decent alternative markets someone could create!
@Conflux Isaac said that Kosovo wouldn't count. Which makes me wonder, what's the most recent new country that Isaac would count? South Sudan has far from unanimous recognition.