Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
Plus
21
Ṁ3432300
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2028?
46% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
36% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
19% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
60% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
56% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
68% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
69% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
71% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
65% chance
Will we get AGI before 2034?
70% chance