Market resolves Yes if health is given as one of reasons he is withdrawing. Deadline: 1 month before general election (October 4th, 2024) so even if he withdraws after being nominated at the Convention, the market resolves Yes
I have a position so I won't resolve as a mod, but my personal take is we need to determine whether
if health is given as one of reasons he is withdrawing
And the main sources for that are the withdrawal letter and the speech https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-withdraws-2024-presidential-race-read-letter/ and https://apnews.com/article/biden-speech-transcript-campaign-withdrawal-432dc25a5af4ddebf75d73bfcc0fa72a
You know, in recent weeks it’s become clear to me that I needed to unite my party in this critical endeavor. I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future all merited a second term, but nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy, and that includes personal ambition.
So I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. That’s the best way to unite our nation. I know there is a time and a place for long years of experience in public life, but there’s also a time and a place for new voices, fresh voices, yes, younger voices, and that time and place is now.
So he doesn't cite health, he cites "new generation" and "younger voices" (i.e. age, which is distinct from health)
I think it’s clear from his resignation of the nomineeship letter that health was NOT given as a reason. The reason given and the reason the party coalesced to pressure him out was because he was going to lose, because he was unpopular. His position on genocide was untenable with the youth, and though Kamala retains the same position, she is portrayed as a fresh start with new policies (regardless of that is the case or not in practice).
Any discussion of his health as an actual reason would have to include why he hasn’t resigned the current presidency. Very importantly, age isn’t (fundamentally) health; a lot of the discussion about age was about future health. He would be too old at some future date. He is out of step with the youth. Etc etc.
We have zero official reports (despite all the rumors) and zero acknowledgement of dementia or senility as reasons for his dropping out of the race (though we all believe what we believe).
His letttrr is clear that this was about politics: a president with unprecedentedly low approval for an incumbent to seek and win reelection stepping aside for an alternative candidate. Ultimately if he wasn’t unpopular he wouldn’t have resigned the candidacy regardless of his age, and as unhealthy as he may have been, his health wasn’t really the reason he was unpopular.
It is obvious his withdrawal was the result of the decline in his health and mental faculties observed by millions in the wake of the debate. However, as he remains president, there has not been official recognition of this factor to my knowledge from his now ended campaign or the White House. How does this resolve with health as an undeniable factor but not “given as one of the reasons” in official communication?
@IsaacKohane his withdrawal is official. the vote is complete, and it's a formal announcement that kamala is the nominee.
i think this qualifies as health being one of the reasons? but there might be some subjectivity