Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Casualties in this market refer exclusively to deaths, not including injuries. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Do not count any articles from the LA Times reporting on excess deaths due to smoke, air quality. (AI summary of creator comment)
16 deaths currently reported
@Mactuary I think most people have interpreted casualties as deaths. The options would be much higher if we included non-lethal injuries. In this case casualties means deaths which the LA times has at this moment listed as 10.
@Laya not counting any articles from the LA Times reporting on excess deaths due to smoke, air quality.
@JALALPOEHLMAN to clarify, in dependent MC, where the probability sums to one, no options can end early
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso yup. you can confirm by clicking the three dots in the top right to see more info