Will I be convinced that recreational Ketamine use has worse health effects than alcohol before 2025?
Plus
14
Ṁ446Jan 1
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the resolution time of this question, I will spend 2+ hours looking into relevant papers and resolve this market to pay out at the probability I assign to the proposition "ketamine has a larger net negative effect on QALYs, in expectation than alcohol". The dosages to be compared are roughly two doses of 40mg ketamine (nasal adminstration), and 10 units of alcohol consumed once every 10 days.
If this question stays at >=90%, or <=10% for a period of one month, I will resolve this market early and do my literature view at that time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will fewer people use ketamine as an antidepressant in 2024 than in 2023?
39% chance
[Metaculus] Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?
2% chance
In 2030, will more than 10 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ketamine in their lifetimes?
69% chance
Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?
50% chance
Will ibogaine be approved for treatment of opioid dependence in th U. S. by 2025?
4% chance
Will a member of the UK Parliament's House of Commons be known to have used a psychedelic drug by the end of 2024?
22% chance
Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?
26% chance
Will any country legalize recreational use of benzodiazepines before 2045?
39% chance
Will any country legalize recreational use of benzodiazepines before 2100?
62% chance
Will any country legalize recreational use of benzodiazepines before 2060?
51% chance