Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?
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https://arcprize.org/competition
>=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set.
(If Chollet et al. change the requirements for the grand prize in 2025, this question will not change. The bar will remain >=85% performance)
2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
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I made a version of this market which allows for closed source LLMs: https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/by-when-will-85-be-reached-on-the-p
This is your chance to win free mana betting against SG, which is a guaranteed winning strategy exploited by top traders such as jackson
@mckiev i might take you up on the offer, but what's your reasoning for 85% accuracy? we're at 30% right now
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