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This Market will resolve to no if any humans are still alive at the end of 2060. Otherwise, the ai will resolve it to yes.
Creating this market as I am interested in the timeline as well as the outcome and we already have the same event on a 2100 timeline.
Link to 2100 market: https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw
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@Daniel_MC this market adds up to 38% prior to 2060, at time of writing, which is pretty close to the 40% here. Maybe more by luck than judgement.
@IsaacKing fair commentary, I've updated to make it explicitly requiring humans to be alive in order to resolve no. If humans are not alive then the AI resolves it yes.
@JamesBills Humans being uploaded, augmented, or in cryonic or suspended animation all count as being "alive", right?
@JamesBills How does making the market depend on a complex philosophical topic that may not even be well-defined help in any way? :)