Each Person Will go up one percentage point for when they die
starting at 1% and working upward.
1% dies first
2% dies second
...
100% dies last
The last Celebrity who dies will resolve 100% even if they haven't died yet.
If I become convinced that All humans will live forever no matter what I will resolve all to 100%. (I assume this has an extremely low chance of happening)
If the close date needs I will extend it.
The date in the parentheses is their Birth Date
@NielS I just want to have established something for a theoretical future this will almost definitely not happen
Also, given how much Manifold loves analyzing the health of Jimmy Carter, I'm surprised he's so high at 34% right now — when realistically he should probably be at, like, 9%.
And I'm surprised Tom Hanks is all the way down at 29% right now lol, when he should probably be a bit higher (and DEFINITELY above Mitch McConnell etc)
@JamesF - oops, i forgot to move the [i] to be within the brackets that showed where the typo was: it's "El[ie]zer" and not "El[e]zer" :D
and "Arnault" and not "Arnult".