Will Manifold be more accurate a month after the pivot
Basic
11
Ṁ418Jun 2
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/calibration if you click learn more you will see an exact brier score. If a month after the pivot the brier score is lower than the day of the pivot. Unless there is a paper on manifold's calibration comparing the month before and after the pivot and I am convinced it is accurate I will resolve according to that.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Any word on a resolution for this market? Presumably @JamesF has a value for what the brier score was on 1 May? Internet Archive is letting me down on this one...
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?
56% chance
Will a reputable news site or TV channel mention the Manifold pivot, starting from now to 2 months after the pivot?
68% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
[The Pivot] Will anyone clone a pre-Pivot Manifold and get it running in 2024?
38% chance
What will Manifold's total mana purchases be in the month after the pivot is implemented and cash payouts enabled?
Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will I still be active on Manifold a year after the Great Pivot?
87% chance
Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?
6 months after the Great Manifold Pivot, will Manifold leadership consider it to have been a good idea?
89% chance