https://manifold.love
Please add your own answers! I will judge them all when appropriate!
This is the first "independent" multiple choice market!
See the proposal for "Manifold Dating" here:
https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-manifold-dating-reach-1000-dai#pSWjKL8lDZdwNvnoRL8x
@mods manifold love is inarguably mostly defunct. The word 'mostly' removes any doubt about the resolution
@JamesGrugett how so? Markets were telling you it would not work, but you went ahead and did it anyway. Sounds spot on.
@Odoacre A low chance of success does not mean it's not worth doing. The 1000 daily active users by Feb 14th market got as high as 16-17% chance after extensive trading for a very ambitious goal.
Thanks for the reminder. I will now go resolve the regret market to NO haha.
@JamesGrugett It was only that high because you bet a huge amount of mana on it...
@JamesGrugett You bought 666 thousand shares. Even if you bought them low, you prevented the market from going lower with massive investments. At that price, it means you had more than 500k mana bet against you.
To put that into perspective, that's about as much mana as Marcus, by far the biggest whale, had at that time, and about 5% of the entire mana of Manifold. If that's not a market-warping amount I don't know what is.
@JamesGrugett in addition to shump's point, which I agree with, there's a couple other minor ways a 12% order distorts the price.
Fear that you have insider knowledge or the inclination to game the stats with your insider powers: e.g. a Valentine's marketing blitz that lets ManLove squeak over the line.
Traders will be hesitant to buy too low if there's a potential for another huge James limit order to drop at a higher price
@JamesGrugett Just one more clarifying question:
by the end of 2024 if no one had spent 6 months with partner found from Manifold it resolves No?
or by the end of June 2025 if no one had spent 6 months with partner found from Manifold it resolves No?
@gregrosent I wrote the option and I meant Feb 29. I believe the original close date was March 1st.