Resolves YES if AOC is ever elected President of the United States. Otherwise, resolves NO when she dies, or the US ceases to exist.
My thought process behind betting YES to 20-25%:
AOC has a lot of charisma and a compelling life story, and a history of pragmatism; she's not interested in sabotaging the party
The Democratic Party is likely to continue moving left, especially as younger generations are more left-leaning
There could be a large generational shift in U.S. politics as Baby Boomers age out of the electorate and Gen Z ages into it
The Republican Party could nominate an unelectable candidate - e.g. AOC probably wins an election versus Boebert or MTG
AOC is young and could theoretically run for president as late as the 2060s or even 2070s; that's a long time for political conditions to change
Weirder things have happened
This market being over 10% is absurd - For AOC to ever be remotely electable, even theoretically, she'd either have to move to the right in a big way (unlikely as she's made a career out of specialising as a figurehead for the hard-left democrat counterculture) or the populace has to move left in a big way (unlikely because US culture is what it is).