Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
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28%
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I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.
Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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