Will the USD stop being the world's reserve currency by 2030?
Standard
55
Ṁ2632
2029
16%
chance

Resolves true if any of the following conditions is met in any 12 month period before 2030/1/1.

  1. The USD accounts for less than 40% of all global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks.

  2. The USD is used in less than 60% of all international trade and financial transactions, including commodities, debt obligations, and investments.

  3. The USD is pegged or linked to no other currencies or to currencies that are legal tender in countries accounting for less than 5% of the world population at the time. The currencies can be linked directly or indirectly, through exchange rate regimes or currency boards.

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predicts YES

Henry the K just suggested that Clown World would negotiate with Putin with China being involved. A sign of the losing of the Ukraine war (I was going to say 'we', but I am just a citizen, and have no choice in the matter) which will lead quickly to dedollarization as the Empire's military is what has kept such attempts at bay before.

predicts YES

Argentina just started paying some of their foreign trade with China in Yuan. Time to toss in another 20.

predicts NO

I don't have a very good grasp of economics, but the person who I find speaks with the most clarity on the Chinese economy is Michael Pettis and for a long time he has guided my understanding about why the Yuan is unlikely to replace the Dollar internationally. This thread is a good introduction to some of the issues:

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1651182375999774720?s=20

The US grabbed 300Bn of Russian money. This, plus other things, makes it not such a great deal to keep with the petrodollar. Saudia Arabia is making nice with the BRICS. Lots of trade in yuan, rupees, and roubles going on between nations, so yeah, the petrodollar is probably gone well before 2030.

predicts NO

@EricAshley you are lucky that you have such good odds for this prediction

@JoshuaWilkes Upon the news that Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, has left the dollarzone, I bet ten more against the dollar. I expect to hear more bad news about the dollar in the near-ish future as I do not think it will take anywhere near until 2030 for the petrodollar to be rendered no longer paramount.

predicts NO

@EricAshley good luck!

predicts NO

@PatrickDelaney I can't see how's that related?

@XavierDunikowski Sorry, I was trying to counter-spam someone's markets who spammed my advertisements and I accidentally spammed this market because they had commented on it. My apologies.

@XavierDunikowski I have no way to delete the above comment otherwise I would.