If Congress certifies the presidential election by end of day Jan. 6, 2025, this market resolves NO. If Congress does not certify the presidential election by end of day Jan. 6, 2025, this market resolves YES.
https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1843302189600567407
"... the State of West Virginia will not recognize an election of a candidate for President during the 2024 election cycle if the Attorney General of West Virginia or the Secretary of State of West Virginia, in consultation with the West Virginia Legislature, determine that election fraud in any state was a major reason that resulted in a candidate for President obtaining a majority in the Electoral College"
What do we think?
The wording of the question is a bit off.
Resolves when the election is certified by the Electoral College.
The electoral college votes, it doesn't certify. I think you must mean, will Congress "certify" the electoral college vote. I put certify in quotes because I don't think that's the term that's used for this process, what they do is count the votes and resolve objections.
@JeffBerman my point is that state certification is a completely different process from the electoral college vote count. What happens on January 6 is to the best of my knowledge not "certification" in either a legal sense or common parlance, so the question as written is confusing.
Edit: actually I found some sources that do call it certification so that part is probably fine.
@jack If Congress votes to certify the presidential election by end of day Jan. 6, 2025, this market resolves NO. If Congress does not vote to certify the presidential election by end of day Jan. 6, 2025, this market resolves YES.
State electors vote on Dec 17th: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates
@JamesBaker3 I tried repeatedly in the wake of our conversation to reach @mods. My screen froze each time. I'm sorry I couldn't fix that from my end.
Is this the thing the January 6 assholes tried to prevent?
Emphasis on January 6