We're talking true existential threat, LONG term. Something that sets us back to the stone age doesn't qualify. (See other questions for that. It's my opinion that even were we reduced to some few thousand, we could recover this civilization within several thousand, certainly 100 thousand years and the overall trajectory of our species would not change too drastically.)
Add options as you see fit, but options which get few votes in the long term will likely be deleted (including mine).
For now, the plan is to resolve by the end of 2025 according to simple democratic opinion. Obviously I ask that everyone plays in the spirit of earnest and truth-seeking. Depending on how long manifold lasts we may see certain options disappear one by one, especially as soon as (if) we go interstellar.
1,000
3.00If there is a poll, I recommend resolving to the fractional proportions of votes or shareholder numbers, rather than 100% to the single most voted or traded option, so there isn't FPTP style snowballing distortion effects towards more famous/stereotypical options like AI
@EvanDaniel Hopefully my brain will be coded into digital, duplicated, uploaded into a fleet of satellites, and shot out into space in every direction. In many many years I'll either be the last human (and can resolve it) or the options will have narrowed to heat death and/or aliens, probably very little else will threaten us at that point.
Short of that though, it will be rather hard to resolve conclusively. I'm more curious to see which options will win out
@StevenK true good point––but I think this sort of poll is fairly common on here, and most people expect it to resolve due simply to majority vote.
@JesseTate I think if what you want is actually a poll you should run a poll! It does kinda suck that you can't edit options as you go or run more complicated polls though.
Here's a good summary of why I think "self-resolving" markets that resolve solely based on trading / market behavior don't work well:
https://manifold.markets/old-posts/selfresolving-markets-why-they-dont