Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?
Basic
6
Ṁ1382026
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will use "Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans (Excluding Farmland), Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks (DRCRELEXFACBS)" from the St Louis Fed:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS
If this index is above 2% for any quarter before Q1 2026, I will resolve YES, and NO otherwise.
The intention of this market is to assess fears that remote work could lead to a decline in office space rents and cause a financial crisis for small banks that are overexposed on these loans.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will mortgage rates fall below 5% anytime before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?
28% chance
Will more student loans be 90+ days delinquent at the end of 2024 compared to the start of 2020?
25% chance
Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
66% chance
Will 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5% before 2026? (United States)
34% chance
At any point in 2024, will my percent loaned be below 1%?
83% chance
Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?
52% chance
Will the average commission rate for realtors in the USA fall below 4.6% by EOY 2028?
56% chance
[REDFIN] Will US home prices fall 1% YoY in Q2 or Q3 2024?
39% chance
Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
16% chance