Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html
He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.
This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:
Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak
The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
1,000
3.00Predicting a real estate crash is tricky because so many factors, like interest rates, job markets, and housing supply play a role. Fred Harrison’s theory of the "18-year land cycle" is fascinating and has held up in past cases, but markets are dynamic and influenced by unexpected events. While some signs like high prices and economic uncertainty hint at a slowdown, a full-blown crash isn’t guaranteed. I’ve read Local Home Buyers reviews, and many people highlight how flexible and adaptive the market can be, even during downturns.
While predicting a 2026 real estate crash is speculative, sellers paying closing costs could signal market imbalance. This trend disadvantages sellers https://www.fastexpert.com/blog/seller-paid-closing-costs-can-a-seller-refuse-to-pay/ reducing profits and potentially inflating buyer expectations, which might destabilize the market if broader economic pressures align. Stay informed!