Resolves PROB to the last two digits of the year when he dies.
Kim Jong Un is 40(?) years old*, and according to this actuarial life table, a 40yo man can typically expect to live around 37 more years, giving an estimated death date of 2023 + 37 = 2060.
*Apparently there is a lot of controversy about whether Kim Jong Un was born in 1982, 1983, or 1984; I'm using the middle value of 1983 to be safe.
EDIT: fixing calculations to be consistent with the middle value
@duck_master Otoh he’s morbidly obese (especially for a Korean) and everyone wants to poison him, so I’d go lower than the actuarial table
@jskf Compared to multiple voice
Cons: this just gives the expected value, not the whole shape of the distribution
Pros: much lower volatility for investors, no arbitrary category boundaries
@JonathanRay Isn't there a market type for predicting numeric values? I find those confusing for other reasons, but they sound more appropriate.
@jskf I’m confident that if this market is efficient AND there’s no chance of survival past 2100, then the % will be the expected year of death