Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
Plus
28
Ṁ24432034
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Primer for purposes of this market, "broken" means some entity could actually decrypt it in less than a decade with the amount of compute they have, without possessing the key, and without side-channel leaks.
Related questions
Related questions
Will RSA-2048 encryption be broken before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD?
2% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
28% chance
🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032
20% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
30% chance
256-bit ECC will be broken by 2032
40% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
20% chance
Will the Dorabella Cipher be broken with a published proof by EOY 2034?
48% chance
Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?
27% chance
Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?
25% chance