Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

World Wars Ukraine-Russia war Ukraine Russia How It Ends

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Ṁ13k

2030

23%

chance

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Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea. Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.

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predicts YES

https://betonit.substack.com/p/idealpolitik-for-martians

One reason this war will go long.

Amazed by how high people put this so have made my own market for when the invasion will end:

https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-russian-invasion-of-u?r=RGFuaWVsX01D

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end?

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date on this Wikipedia page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 24 hour period. If there's any doubt I will resolve in line with the spirit of the question. [image]I may change the criteria in response to questions or if anyone points out flaws. I will not bet in this market.

Your boost worked. Limit order filled

ugh I didn't notice that

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack You wanted to take the other side of Jonathan's limit order at 26%?

I can resell at a modest profit, I'd be happy to get the instant turnaround.

Yeah, it seems the market's liquidity pool is big enough I'm fine with this small position though

If the conflict goes back to how it was in 2021, would it count as "ongoing" or not? I believe there were >10 casualties in 2021 but certainly it was much less active.

predicts YES

@NikitaSokolsky 2021 would still count as an ongoing conflict

1) any war, or this specific one?

2) is frozen conflict like between Koreas also counting as war?

3) is frozen conflict over specific territory like between Russia and Japan also counting as war?

4) is frozen conflict over specific territory and limited fighting like between China and India also counting as war?

predicts YES

1) Any war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk

2-4) A frozen conflict would count as "not a war" if there are <10 fatalities in 2029

@JonathanRay Would the situation back in 2015 (separatists only) resolve this as yes?

predicts YES

@mariopasquato If the separatists are known to still be supported by Russia and the related violence kills 10+ people per year, yes

Still a tactical stalemate, and still both sides have mutually exclusive commitments. Ukraine will never agree to let Russia have Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia will never agree to let Ukraine have Donetsk and Luhansk. Buying YES at 20%.