Will Geert Wilders be the Dutch Prime Minister at any point in 2024?
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86
Ṁ16kJan 1
8%
chance
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Should be self explanatory.
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@WieDan The main reason I'm not betting this down to 10% is that the formation of a coalition is looking pretty hopeless so it could take 6 months and I don't want to commit for that long.
Can someone help me understand why this market is (at time of writing) at 88% while other markets on who will be PM after the election are around 34-45% for him? Is it because someone else is expected to become PM soon and he'll take power later because of some quirk of the Netherlands electoral system? Or is this market just new?
/jskf/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3
@DanMan314 This market was made by an American and actual Dutch people are active on the other markets.
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