New market type! All options are unlinked from other options, and will resolve either 0% or 100%. Options can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open until the end of 2028.
Any submitted name that is made Time's Person of The Year in any year through 2028 will resolve Yes. Any abstract concept/group that I judge to be synonymous with an abstract concept/group that is named Person of the Year will also resolve Yes. Feel free to submit answers that are duplicates or close synonyms to existing answers, I'll resolve all correct options to the full 100%.
Also, note that TIME has traditionally named the US president elect as the POTY in election years. In 2020 they also named the VP-elect as person of the year. So keep 2024 and 2028 in mind for your wagers!
@Joshua That would require that
Biden chooses Kamala as his running mate again
Biden gets elected (currently ~55%)
Time Magazine chooses him again
I'd say combined probability is definitely lower than 30%
I doubt that they would give the award to "artificial intelligence" generally. If they are going to give a "person of the year" award it seems more likely to be to a specific personality
Agreed but of course there is an exception to this too: 2006
"You" was the official choice for Time's Person of the Year in 2006. The magazine set out to recognize the millions of people who anonymously contribute user-generated content to websites such as YouTube, MySpace, Facebook, Wikipedia and other wikis, and the multitudes of other websites featuring user contribution
@firstuserhere They don't seem to have a problem giving it to a group of people and I'm guessing they might give it to a "non-human" artificial intelligence. But I doubt they would do both things at the same time! (a group of artificial intelligences)
@Joshua if "AI" wins, is chatgpt resolved as yes?
And if "the AI builders" win, that is not resolved as yes for AI/chatgpt, correct?
@Joshua By your logic, if Sam Altman wins then "The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders" should also win because Sam Altman is an AI leader, is that right?
So the resolution criteria state: "Any abstract concept/group that I judge to be synonymous with an abstract concept/group that is named Person of the Year will also resolve Yes."
The intent is that I'm being generous for cases where the POTY is not a single human being. When it's a single human being I'm only going to resolve that single human being to Yes.
@Joshua sounds very reasonable tbh. I think it's really stretching it to say that "The AI builders" is the same as Sama
@Joshua well, there is a good chance he passes away or is too feeble to become president. The 14% for Kamala Harris seem to point in this direction.