Historically, the majority of Americans believe that Oswald did not act alone in assassinating JFK.
The best recent polling on this question I can find is this 538 article from 2017:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-thing-in-politics-most-americans-believe-in-jfk-conspiracies/
In this article, 538 commissioned an online poll of 5000 Americans and found that 61% believed that "others were involved" and 33% believed that he "acted alone". The article also talks about more traditional polling before 2017 showing similar results. Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any polling of this question since 2017.
This question is about whether anyone will do more large scale polling on this issue before 2030, and if so whether that polling will show that a majority of americans now believe Oswald acted alone.
Note that because there are many polls from the past showing that <50% of Americans believe this, the bar for proving that this is no longer the case is high. Any one poll in either direction could be wrong, so I'd want to be sure that any results are outside the margin of error before I consider resolving this question early.
I'd want any surveymonkey polling to have at least as many respondents as the 538 polling, though I'd ideally like to see the question asked by a traditional pollster like Gallup. Multiple polls would be best, because any one poll could have flawed methodology. But one very large poll from a trusted pollster showing "acted alone" significantly above 50% would be enough to resolve the market early.
Given that I can't find any polling on this question since the 538 article, it's possible that there will also be not be enough new polling done in the next seven years to know the public's opinion with certainty.
What do you think will happen?
1,000
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