China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2035
Basic
2
Ṁ195
2035
34%
PRC occupies Xiaoliuqiu
34%
PRC occupies Hualien but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Pratas Island
34%
PRC occupies Orchid Island
34%
PRC occupies Kaohsiung but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Taitung but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Matsu (Nangan)
34%
PRC occupies Kinmen (main island)
34%
PRC occupies Wuqiu
34%
PRC occupies Penghu (Magong)
34%
PRC occupies Green Island
34%
PRC occupies Yilan but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Taichung but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Hsinchu but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Taoyuan but not Taipei
34%
PRC occupies Taipei but not Kaohsiung
30%
PRC occupies Taipei
24%
PRC occupies Taiping Island (Itu Aba)

Resolves to all which are true

"Occupies": these questions are not intended to be bogged down in the minutae of this point. If the ROC (Taiwanese) military is still contesting any of these locations with permanent boots on the ground, they are not occupied (raids or partisan attacks would not qualify as 'permanent'). Common sense should be applied by the resolving party. If common sense cannot draw a clear conclusion, they are not occupied.

Note: wherever a city is mentioned, it should be understood as the urban environment, rather than the local government county with the same name.

I may bet in these markets. If this causes a lack of objectivity, or for other reasons I cannot resolve them, market participants should choose a mutually agreeable adjudicator.

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