Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?
Basic
6
Ṁ342036
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
'more than 15,000 tonnes' - ships tend to be listed with a range of tonnage, due to the range of equipment and load they can carry. If the top end of the range exceeds 15,000 tonnes this qualifies.
'Lost at sea' is defined as an unintentional sinking, potentially due to hostile action but potentially due to bad weather or poor maintenance/accidents.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will any navy ship of more than 2,000 tonnes be sunk in ship-to-ship combat before 2036?
48% chance
Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?
41% chance
Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
58% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
27% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
34% chance
Will the Houthis sink a third ship before 2025?
10% chance
Will an airship capable of lifting 100,000+ kg exist in 2035?
49% chance
How many starships will be launched before 2030?
119
What power sources will provide at least 10% of the energy used in maritime transportation in 2040.
Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025
57% chance