Will there be an oil spill of more than 10 000 tonnes as given on the wikipedia list of oil spills at the end of april 2026 as estimated as the maximum potential amount in the listing, and occurring between midnight 31. December 2024 and midnight 31. December 2025?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills

Background

Oil spills remain a significant environmental concern, with several major incidents occurring each decade. According to NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration, while the frequency of large oil spills has decreased since the 1970s due to improved safety measures and regulations, significant spills still occur. The Wikipedia list of oil spills serves as the authoritative source for this market and includes comprehensive data on major spills worldwide.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the Wikipedia list of oil spills (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills) as it appears at the end of April 2026. To resolve YES:

• The spill must have occurred between December 31, 2024 (midnight) and December 31, 2025 (midnight)

• The estimated maximum potential amount listed must exceed 10,000 tonnes

• The spill must be listed in the Wikipedia article as of end of April 2026

Considerations

• The Wikipedia article may be updated after a spill occurs, and the estimated amount of oil spilled might be revised over time

• Some spills may not be immediately detected or reported, which is why the resolution date is set to April 2026 to allow time for documentation

• Historical data shows that spills of this magnitude are relatively rare but do occur every few years

• The market considers the maximum potential amount listed, not necessarily the final confirmed amount

• Both offshore and onshore spills that affect waterways are eligible for consideration

Clarification: Oceans are bodies of water

Committment: Market maker will not trade on it