Will the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Basic
3
Ṁ372045
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Commissioning is the formal entry into service of a ship, not the act of ordering its construction.
Resolves YES if the US commissions a fourth Ford-class carrier.
Resolves NO if the US formally commits not to construct and commission a fourth Ford-class carrier AND a US presidential election has taken place subsequent to that decision AND the decision is not reversed by the winner of that election (three months after swearing in)
The NO criteria seem a bit over the top, but apart from applying 'by X year' instead, which I don't want to do, they may be the best choice.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
47% chance
Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
51% chance
Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2028?
38% chance
Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?
47% chance
Will the U.S. Navy announce that it will purchase ships built in Japan or South Korea in 2024?
10% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
27% chance
Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?
41% chance
Will the keel be laid for a third Royal Navy Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier prior to January 2030?
29% chance
Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?
75% chance