Will North Korea attempt a major military invasion of South Korea by Jan 1, 2025?
Plus
14
Ṁ1833Jan 1
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if any attempt is made at capturing territory greater than 25km^2 at the time of market open belonging to the Republic of Korea.
Territory considered to be part of the DMZ is NOT included unless the officially stated (or widely understood) aim is the capture of additional territory beyond it (a skirmish over a strip of minefield by low level officers will NOT resolve to YES).
An attempt that fails to actually capture any territory will still resolve to YES if the aim was understood or officially stated as the capture of more than 25km^2 of territory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?
71% chance
Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of November 2024?
3% chance
Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2035?
23% chance
Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?
21% chance
Will North Korea engage in an active military conflict before 2026?
90% chance
Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?
21% chance
Will North Korea launch a missile through Japanese airspace by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?
65% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
16% chance