People are pointing out that if martial law is reinstated and holds until Jan 1st this will have incorrectly resolved.

While it was not my intention when I created the question, that is undeniably the case and I would certainly ask the mods to change the resolution if this happened.

So the question is, do market participants actually think this is plausible and that the question should be reopened? Or are people just making a very fair point that it shouldn't have been closed on principle?

@JoshuaWilkes

For context I am in Taiwan and so created this market around 11pm and resolved it at 4am when I woke up and saw that Yoon had lifted martial law. I was just following my intention when creating the question.

What I don't see now is any of the experts I follow saying anything other than "Yoon is completely done". That's why my gut instinct is that reopening the market simply isn't worth it.

@JoshuaWilkes I'd say treat it's fine to treat as a provisional resolution - leave it resolved and reopen it only if martial law happens again or it otherwise looks like a significant possibility.

@JoshuaWilkes Hello, i betted at 4% and obviously i didnt think at the moment that there is a big chance of 4% event happening, and moreover after lifting the martial law. What i am talking about is that legally speaking you ressolved incorrectly and even with 0,1% possibility that somehow korea will go in martial law again before 1 january it should not be ressolved. As far as i understood, if this event however will happen, I will get my money back so now i feel fine. still as a matter of fact this is ressolved incorrectly although chance is as i said probably less than 1%

ressolved too early i believe that mr. Yoon Suk Yeol just tricked everyone by telling that he is done with the coup. only to start it once again! give my money back.

@f3to is there any evidence that this is actually happening? Or is your position just that it's plausible that it will happen in the days to come?

I disagree with the resolution, says "on" not "continuously until".

Hopefully it will come to an end with this but as always nothing is certain

Note polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2024?tid=1733250400154

Background

On December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law, citing the need to protect the country from alleged "communist forces" and anti-state activities. The declaration came amid accusations against the opposition party, though specific details about the duration and scope of the martial law remain unclear.

Considerations

• This is an unprecedented situation in recent South Korean history

• The duration of martial law may be influenced by various factors including:

  • Political reactions and potential legal challenges

  • International community response

  • Public protests or demonstrations

  • Constitutional Court rulings

• The situation is rapidly developing and could change quickly based on domestic or international pressure

Parliament voted against it, what happens next?

@MalachiteEagle Now the president needs to decide whether he’ll comply (which he’s constitutionally bound to do) or not (which he will if he thinks the military has the stomach for it). The minister of nat def, at least, seems on the pres’s side. https://www.hankyung.com/article/2024120423147

He could also ignore it. My guess is that’s what he’ll do. More would give people a schelling point to start seriously protesting.

@GarrettBaker that means it's effectively the military who decides the outcome at this point

I admire how quick you were to create this

@a_l_e_x Fastest market creator in the West.

@Kraalnaxx *the East