Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
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For the purposes of this question, a nuclear weapon will be considered used militarily if, by the end of 2033, there is an intentional detonation of a nuclear device by any entity that causes substantial damage, harm, or casualties as an act of aggression to advance military objectives against an adversary. The detonation must be a hostile action deployed for a military purpose, not a test or accident.
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