The data source says that it's still an estimate

These estimates are of 3pm on Tuesday, December 10 and will continue to be revised as more data become available

Unless the election count is finalized before the end of the year, we still need to wait until then to resolve.

@JunHongebby resolve????

@mods close please

@Manifold close please

Reopening, this market will resolve in mid-December once the election count is finalised. The source of truth will be according to the figures from https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/.

If the election count is not finalised by the end of year, we will resolve anyways to the figure on the source at 23:59 PST 31st December.

@Manifold please resolve

@SirSalty

Closing this question.

We will use VEP as that is consistent with the figure used in the description (66.8% was the VEP in the 2020 election according to chatgpt which is what I suspect the creator used).

@Manifold How long will we wait for their figure to change as more data trickles in?

@bagelfan I'm not sure... will just play it by ear and keep an eye on it.

@SirSalty Could we just set like a date (possibly noon Dec 13, after all states certify their results), specify data source in desc (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/) then reopen the market? That would be much better than the current state of the question.

@Manifold @mods Some things to clear up:

1. As mentioned below, it's not clear whether we are using VAP or VEP.

2. What's the data source for the question? The link shows Wikipedia, but I thought we aren't using Wikipedia as the source for sweepstakes markets after Helene vs Milton?

3. When will the market resolve?

Another thing that can make a small difference is if all ballots are counted, or only those with a valid vote for the president.

There are multiple sources that are cited on Wikipedia in different places, each reporting a slightly different number for the 2020 election (and we can expect it will be similar for this election):

Federal Election Commission: 62.8% VAP

https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf (search 'Percentage of Voting Age Population casting a vote for President')

U.S. Census Bureau: 66.8% VAP (this is the number from the description, but it is suspiciously high given that it's VAP)

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/record-high-turnout-in-2020-general-election.html

The American Presidency Project: 62.8% VAP, 65.9% VEP

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/voter-turnout-in-presidential-elections

The U.S. Elections Project: 61.8% VAP, 66.6% VEP

https://www.electproject.org/2020g

This one has updated the numbers many times, they state that it was last updated 12/7/2020, but that's not true, an archived version from 2021 has 62.0% VAP, 66.7% VEP

https://web.archive.org/web/20210430220622/http://www.electproject.org/2020g

The differences could be because of different ways of counting U.S. residents who are not U.S. citizens, citizens with criminal conviction or U.S. citizens residing in other countries. There could be some difference in which ballots are counted, the Census maybe instead counts people who said they voted, there may be corrections to published numbers which some sources incorporate but others don't, ...

Where does the 66.8% number come from? Your data source shows 65.9%.

@HillaryClinton I answered this in a comment above ↑

@FH7979e Thanks! I think it should be VEP. That was 65.9%, the others are obviously too high or low. 65% feels right for VEP otherwise this question would be worthless.

Is this based on voting-age population or voting-eligible population?

Made this into a sweepcash market!