How many fatalities will there be in a potential conflict between Venezuela and Guyana between now (December 10) and the end of 2024?
This includes military and civilian on both sides. If a third country intervenes then those fatalities will be included as well.
Only one bucket will be a winner.
I won’t participate in the market in case there are any grey areas with resolution like disputed number of fatalities.
Update:
Note that Wikipedia already lists several non-combat deaths that occurred on December 6. I will count non-combat deaths that happen after the start of the market. However, I must be convinced that they’re directly related to the military buildup. A training accident or military crash elsewhere in the country would not count. A helicopter crash patrolling the border would count. I’ll refrain from betting in the market so I can stay neutral for this.
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@KLiamSmith so 0 should already resolve no? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Guyana_Defence_Force_helicopter_crash
@GCS Wikipedia also lists this on the casualties on the crisis page.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Guayana_Esequiba_crisis
@GCS The description says “between now and the end of 2024” and that happened on December 6, so that wouldn’t count. If a similar incident happens in the future I would count it though.
@GCS Thanks for pointing that out. I should probably specify that “now” means December 10 so traders in the future aren’t confused.