@SemioticRivalry little bit of action at 37% NO on Thunder?

@bens nvm i don't know ball

@bens it's so over, Nuggets lost, Thunder somehow pulling off a 29 point comeback

@bens lmao

@SemioticRivalry still have unwavering, supreme confidence (4%) that the Knicks will take the chip this year

@bens what's funny is that the thunder's odds on books went down slightly because they have a higher chance of playing Clippers, who books have benchmarked as a lot better than Denver

@SemioticRivalry hmm that's odd to me because I think Denver should have a higher ceiling, but wow, Polymarket has the Clippers at 7.5% and Denver at 0.8% which seems... flawed tbh

@bens denver is ~22% to advance on books, then they're going to be in the 20s in round 2 to OKC and also to either of bos/cle, so i really don't think it's crazy, they just can't defend and the help around Jokic is pretty weak this year. my thunder money would be very happy to see denver in round 2

@SemioticRivalry I think in worlds where Denver beats OKC and makes the finals, there’s no way they’re in the 20’s, they’re probably slight underdogs at that point. But ya, Denver’s depth is… kind of abysmal and I’d hoped that playoff rotations would minimize that damage but 🤷‍♂️

@bens I wonder what the betting odds were for the 2023 nba finals… I feel like the Heat then were probably about as much of an underdog as a finals matchup could’ve produced, and they were probably still like 30% to win? I can’t recall tho

@SemioticRivalry denver at 20% vs BOS/CLE atm seems plausible, but conditioning on them beating LAC & OKC, surely you'd expect them to typically enter the series with better odds than that? (in some worlds where they advance, it's because of freak injuries or etc & the expectations don't change, but in many it'd be "they played better than anyone expected"). given that sort of dependence, 1% does seem a bit strange to me (but a big chunk is driven by the 2-1 deficit, they looked about as shaky at 1-1 & poly still had them at a less extreme 3%)

@Ziddletwix I think it's plausible that they would be higher, maybe into the low 30s. But even if we give them that, I'm also pretty confident they'd be a dog in round 3 also if they play GSW/LAL. So if we say 0.22 *0.25 0.45 * 0.30 we still get 0.7%, and imo that's me being a little generous. The sportsbooks have zero reason to ever offer you fair odds on anything, and yet they are very eagerly accepting your money on the Nuggets at 100 to 1.

i think it's generally quite underestimated how strong books are at sticking to their priors- the 2023 heat are a great example because they're really one of the luckiest teams in history. After their incredibly dramatic run where they beat two elite teams with 58 and 57 wins, they were priced at ~22ct in the finals vs a pretty good (but not historically great) 53 win Nuggets team. In the first round, the Nuggets played the Timberwolves who were 42-40 and 20th in net rating, and the Timberwolves were priced at ~17ct. Now I thought that the Nuggets were incredibly underrated by the books that year for a lot of reasons and that ended up being correct, but I think if anything they've been overrated this year because of pedigree.

bet lakers for free mana

I con not believe the Pacers are not listed!.

@MJLebowski @KevinBurke

@MJLebowski They are

@bagelfan hit “Show 10 more answers”

@KevinBurke oh that’s strange; it absolutely was glitching for me as well and didn’t show that option earlier

The rates on the Rockets, the current #2 seed in the west… you know what? I shouldn’t complain. Yes, they would have to get by the Thunder to get to the final, but their chance is non-zero as long as they make the playoffs.

To all bettors please note this market will not resolve for at least one year!!