I will run a poll of Manifold users who identfied as Democrats in 2024 (poll will occur in 2028) asking whether they feel they suffered from any form of Trump derangement syndrome between 2016 and 2024.
Will more than 50% claim that they did?
1,000
3.00@TheAllMemeingEye You are betting on the results of a poll done on Manifold in 2028 that says:
Do you feel you suffered any form of TDS between 2016 and 2024.
Interpretation of that will be done by voters.
@TheAllMemeingEye Seems to me like people who regard their past self as having been deranged, but their present self in a better state, would answer yes to "did you have ____ derangement syrdrome" while people who believe they had correct beliefs would say no. So this question selects for those who regard themselves as having recovered from Trump Derangement Syndrome, because those who "have not recovered" would just say there's nothing to recover from, and Trump Derangement Syndrome is a disparaging mischaracterization of correct beliefs.
Asking directly "Have you recovered from Trump Derangement Syndrome?" is kind of like "Have you stopped beating your wife?" - one might be reluctant to answer "no" and motivated to challenge the framing of the question. Which situation is avoided by phrasing the question differently.